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The Newsletter
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Cancún Showdown
Cancún, Mexico: the fifth Ministerial meeting of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) collapsed on Sunday 14th September when delegates stormed out after four days of acrimonious trade talks. They could not have chosen a better venue: in the local Mayan language, Cancún means a snakepit.
The Doha trade round launched in Qatar in November 2001 featured grand rhetoric about freeing up trade in agriculture by reducing trade-distorting farm support, slashing tariffs on farm goods and eliminating agricultural-export subsidies.
Disappointingly, the draft framework, when it finally emerged in August, was much less ambitious than Doha had implied. Export subsidies, for example, were not to be eliminated after all. Given the havoc that their farm policies create, rich countries should have done far more.
The EU and the US promote free trade yet continue to subsidise their farmers at a rate of $1 billion a day while also demanding that developing countries cut their tariffs. The effect is to expose already vulnerable small farmers in the South to grossly unfair competition that impoverishes millions as cheap Western food is dumped on global markets. Mexican corn prices are reported to have fallen by about 70% since 1994 in the face of subsidised US imports.
Angered
Angered by the lack of ambition on
agriculture, a new block of developing countries, the Group of 22
(G22), got together at Cancún to demand cuts in import barriers, caps
on all rich-country farm payments and an end to the subsidies on exported food
that let cheap western products flood global markets. They also staunchly defended
the right of developing countries not to open their markets to the same degree
as the rich countries. Yet the talks collapsed before the real negotiations
on agriculture had even begun.
A group of four West African countries
managed to get the issue of cotton onto the agenda. West African cotton farmers
are being crushed by the $4 billion-plus a year that America lavishes on its
25,000 cotton farmers, depressing prices and wrecking the global market. The
West African four wanted an end to these subsidies and compensation for their
losses.
On Saturday, the chairman, Mexican foreign secretary, Luis Ernesto Derbez, issued
a fresh draft negotiating text but, under the influence of American negotiators
fiercely defensive of their own growers, the new drafts promises on cotton
were timid and grudging, with no mention of eliminating subsidies or of compensation.
Singapore Sling
By now, backed by powerful multinational
corporations, Europe, Japan and South Korea wanted to move on to negotiations
on the four new Singapore issues of investment, competition policy,
trade facilitation, and transparency in government procurement.
The poorest countries insisted that
they were not ready to move into these areas. They were concerned especially
about investment rules, because many want to retain
control over their own key industrial sectors.
A last-minute decision by the EU Trade Commissioner Pascal Lamy to drop investment and competition, the most controversial of the four issues, failed to appease the African states. Japan and Korea declared they would only debate on all four issues, or else none of them. In response, Kenya led a walkout of poorest African, Caribbean and Asian countries, and that was that. Derbez said he saw no basis for compromise and declared the meeting over.
Wrecked
So, it looks like the rich countries
wrecked the talks by pushing too hard on the Singapore issues and giving too
little on agriculture. Developing countries felt that what was on offer, in
terms of access to Western markets and agricultural reform, wasnt a fair
deal.
The G22 are united (for now) against an unjust and inconsistent set of trade rules, procedures and practices that dominantly reflect the interest of a few rich countries. If they stick together, their union could provide the sort of balance urgently needed to prevent superpowers from dictating the terms of trade, aid and international policies to their own advantage. However, in the long term future of the G22 is less certain. El Salvador had pulled out even before the talks ended, and the South African countries look likely to pull out of the informal grouping and seek bilateral trade deals with the US. Washington has hinted darkly that those developing countries that adopted anti-American positions at Cancún may find their aid and trade relations adjusted accordingly.
The Bush administration likes rules when they protect US interests, but rejects them when they dont. The WTO, like the United Nations over Iraq, has become a victim of Americas multilateralism of convenience. Having engineered a massive trade deficit, Bush could easily drag the US into a new era of protectionism at home and aggressive export expansion overseas as poor countries desperate for access to the US market enter into risky bilateral and regional deals. For the poorest countries in particular, the chances of getting from a bilateral deal what they failed to get from the Doha round are nil.
Crisis
The WTO faces a real crisis of legitimacy.
It cannot go on ignoring its critics for the sake of efficiency
and liberalization for its own sake when millions of lives are at stake. The
first step should be to scrap the Singapore issues. On agriculture, the EU reform
of the common agricultural policy (CAP) should be reopened, along with a clear
commitment to stop agricultural dumping. The world needs new proposals based
on fair and sustainable economies for everyone.
James Botham