It has been 15 years since the last White Paper on Aviation, which did not have the vision to see as far as the present day. This resulted in the virtual policy vacuum that is fuelling the current uncontrolled growth of the industry. To address this the Government has committed itself to producing a 30 Year Aviation Strategy that it will deliver after the decision on Heathrow's Terminal Five, probably towards the end of this year. In preparation it has issued its consultation document on air transport policy, 'The Future of Aviation', which will form the basis of the most extensive review and consultation ever undertaken in this area. So what does the future hold for the next thirty years, and what issues does the new White Paper need to address?
Government figures show that 160 million passengers used the UK's airports in 1998, and forecast that these figures could rise to 460 million by 2020. If growth is not curbed then Britain will need four more airports the size of Heathrow. It is widely accepted that there is little or no more capacity for growth in the South East and therefore the regional airports will be forced to accommodate their share of that growth. This is a frightening prospect, for residents living near to Birmingham International Airport and other regional airports. Even rural Shropshire may not be safe as there have been investigations into the use of military airfields such as RAF Cosford.
Without growth restrictions, last month's announcements by local airports will just be the thin end of the wedge, as more and more flights create more and more congestion, noise and air pollution affecting increasing numbers of people living near our airports. In addition to the inevitable local environmental and social problems, there are the global concerns. Air travel is the fastest growing cause of the greenhouse gas emissions responsible for climate change. In 1992, it accounted for 3.5% of emissions, the United Nations predict it could rise to 15% over the next few decades. If these problems are to be avoided then there is clearly a need to reduce the demand for air travel, and indications from Whitehall are that they will be rejecting a strategy based on "predict and provide", in favour of some form of demand management approach.
The demand for air travel is extremely price-sensitive, and one of the reasons for the spiralling increase in demand over the last decade is the heavy subsidies that are given to the aviation industry. No duty is paid on aviation fuel and there is no VAT on airline tickets or on the purchase of planes. Airports also only pay low agricultural rates for their ground transport fuel. Removing these subsidies would be the first step in restricting the growth in demand.
Across all its policy areas the Government has committed itself to promoting the "polluter pays" principle, as required by the Maastricht Treaty. At present the aviation industry does not pay for the costs of noise, pollution and climate change that it causes. These external costs have been calculated as being around a329 for the average person flying 1000 kilometres (625 miles), equivalent to a311 billion for the whole of the European Union. Similar journeys by train incur only half of these environmental costs. Adding an environmental levy onto the cost of flights would not only go some way to compensating for the damage they cause but would also serve as another instrument to control demand by increasing the cost of the flight.
In 'The Future of Aviation' John Prescott talks of ensuring that the "future of the aviation industry is a sustainable one". Although I'm not sure that the document uses the term sustainable in any sense that I understand it, it is clear that if we are to get even close to this goal then the price of air travel has to rise. The challenge for the Government is whether, particularly after September's fuel tax protests, they are brave enough to take on the might of the aero-lobby at the same time as telling the public that they are slapping a tax on their holidays.
Hopefully, by the time we observe the centenary of the Wright Brothers' first powered flight less than three years from now, the government will have made the difficult choices that mark the beginning of the end for unrestrained growth in air travel.
Brett Rehling